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| 12/4/2009 8:00:00 AM | Email this article • Print this article | Public Policy Polling shows tight governor's contest
The first of an occasional series on the state's governor's race
A new public opinion poll released Thanksgiving week shows a hotly contested 2010 governor's race in the Badger state, with the two leading candidates running dead even.
According to the survey of 767 voters by Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling, Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, considered the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, and Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker, the odds-on Republican favorite, are deadlocked in a head-to-head matchup with 40 percent each and 20 percent undecided.
Barrett leads another GOP candidate, former U.S. Rep. Mark Nuemann, by 41 percent to 39 percent.
The tie should come as no surprise, especially this early. The two Milwaukee politicians represent two starkly different aspects of Milwaukee County: Barrett carries the banner of Big City mayor, while Walker flies the flag of the more conservative suburbs.
The even numbers also represent a lack of knowledge about the two downstate candidates across much of the rest of the state. Most of the gubernatorial candidates are not known well enough statewide for voters to have formed a substantially favorable or substantially unfavorable opinion.
For example, 57 percent don't know much about Neumann; 48 percent are pretty clueless about Barrett, and 44 percent can't register with Walker.
Of those with an opinion, Barrett scored a 31 percent favorable rating compared to 21 percent unfavorable; Neumann, 16 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable; Walker, 30 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable.
Thompson fading?
Perhaps the poll's biggest surprise was the relatively poor showing by former governor Tommy Thompson, who was elected to four terms as governor as one of the most popular chief executives ever to hold the office. Thompson has indicated he might run again next year, or challenge U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold for his seat.
If the numbers are any indication, Thompson faces uphill sledding if he enters either the governor's or the senate race. Barrett leads Thompson 46 percent to 41 percent, while, in a similar recent poll, Feingold also posted a substantial lead over Thompson.
More problematic for the former governor are his comparative favorable ratings.
Unlike the other candidates, most voters are familiar with Thompson and, for the most part, they aren't buying the politics he's selling, suggesting his day may have come and gone. Thirty-eight percent of those sampled had a favorable impression of the former governor, while 45 percent had an unfavorable view of Thompson. Thompson has joked that he might run for governor or senator or for mayor of Elroy, and Public Policy Polling suggested he might do well to look lower rather than higher.
"The gubernatorial numbers on this poll are further indication that Tommy Thompson's best next political move may be running for Mayor of Elroy," the polling group stated. "He does the worst of this Republican trio against Barrett, probably owing to the fact that 45 percent of the state has a negative opinion of him with only 38 percent seeing him positively. Clearly he has lost much of the appeal that got him elected to four terms as governor."
Whither the independents?
Another trend observers are keeping an eye on is that of independent voters and where they might be migrating to, at least so far in this election cycle. A substantial drift of independent voters into the Republican column in large part enabled the GOP to capture recent statehouse elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
Though it is early, the same trend is unfolding in Wisconsin, according to the PPP poll. Walker's 43 percent to 28 percent lead over Barrett among independents is responsible for his keeping the race tied.
"The Wisconsin gubernatorial race is really up for grabs," Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said. "With the candidates mostly unknown to the voters right now it's impossible to say how the contest will play out. It is clear, though, that Republicans have a decent shot of taking back this office."
Another number also indicates trouble for the Democrats - the number of those surveyed who voted for President Barack Obama and who are now willing to consider a Republican. Among those surveyed, Obama won 48 percent to 41 percent over McCain, indicating some erosion toward the GOP in a Barrett-Walker contest, given the 40-40 tie in the latter race.
Hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives - particularly in the 8th congressional district, a swing district now held by two-term incumbent Democrat Stave Kagen - could also have a substantial bearing on the gubernatorial contest, especially because the party in power tends to lose congressional seats.
Finally, the polling group said, Barrett was faring a lot better than incumbent gov. Jim Doyle had been in earlier surveys.
"These numbers provide further confirmation that Jim Doyle's retirement is a very good thing for Democratic hopes of keeping the Governor's office," the polling group stated. "On our June poll of Wisconsin he trailed Walker 48-40 and Neumann 42-41."
All in all, the group concluded, it's a seat the Republicans have to be optimistic about.
"Given how much better Wisconsin voters will know these candidates in a year than they do now it's impossible at this point to say how the race will play out but it's clear that Republicans do have an opportunity to win this one back, and that it's likely to be a close contest," the group stated in its analysis.
The pollster
It should be noted that Public Policy Polling is an unabashedly Democratic polling organization and has been mired in some controversy.
Earlier this year, according to Politico.com, incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) took on the North Carolina firm after it published a series of polls indicating the senator was vulnerable, with consistently low approval ratings.
Politico also reported that Debnam had given generously to North Carolina Democratic candidates, including in races where his firm had conducted polling. Debnam donated $5,400 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during last year's Senate race between former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) and Democrat Kay Hagan, Politico reported.
For its part, Public Policy Polling makes no apologies for its political leanings but stands by its numbers, and, indeed, the Wall Street Journal pegged it as highly accurate in the 2008 elections, saying its swing-state polling was the second most accurate in the country.
Richard Moore can be reached at rmmoore1@verizon.net
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