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Political forecast

February 18, 2020

To the Editor:
Iowa is supposed to tell the future for a presidential election. Take all the poll numbers you want, but it will not give you the voting results. The actual numbers will speak. 
Early in the last presidential election season I had Trump winning. The numbers were there. Electoral-wise I was within 1%. That surprised me at the time. There were things I did not consider.
In 2020 I do not think I can keep the same system. Not only that, but I deleted the spreadsheet. The last presidential election was for two new people running for president. With that in mind I considered Obama as an incumbent in 2012 and used those numbers to look at President Trump’s chances.
It does not make a difference on the formula I use, that will be adjusted/corrected as the election continues.
In 2012 consider that the Iowa caucus, Obama had a record vote of 27,400 for 98% and 2% other. Obama won the Iowa popular vote in the election by 52% to 46% with 2% other. Actual margin of victory was 5.8%. During the national election Obama won 51% to 47% for a margin of victory of 4%.
In 2020 the Iowa caucus vote, President Trump set a new record vote of 31,398 and 3% other. A new record by 14% more! Calculating the Iowa actual vote (slightly less) in November shows a 55% Republican to 45% Democrat vote result. And again, figuring slightly less a national vote in November of 54% for President Trump and 44% for the Democrats with 2% other.
Obama’s electoral vote in 2012 was 62% Obama to 38% Republican for a 24% margin of victory. The political forecast for President Trump’s electoral vote in 2020 is 71% Trump to 29% Democrat for a 34% margin of victory.
Now the problem with my political forecast. Look at the number of people at political rallies. You never see the crowds for the Democrats, only the Republicans. In these early Republican rallies, polls showed about 10% of these people were Democrats. Then not long ago the poll numbers showed 10-20% of the people were Democrats. Now a week or so ago there was a poll showing that 15-30% of the people at the Trump rallies were Democrats.
Like I said you can take all the poll numbers you want. For the sake of argument say 30% is too high, use 20%. And of that say only 1 in 2 actually vote Republican. That could increase Trump’s margin of victory from 10% to 15% and the electoral vote to over 40%.
These are not poll numbers by the main stream media. This is using actual numbers from 2012 when Obama was the incumbent in Iowa to forecast the 2020 Presidential election when President Trump is the incumbent.
Actually, it is too early to make these forecasts at this time. But don’t feel bad for calling me crazy, everyone did in 2016. I still called Donald Trump for the win. Right now, only 44% of the people are calling me crazy!

Rick Holman
Minocqua

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